Tuesday, May 28, 2019

80% Chance of Additional Weather Watch For Area, Would Include Wichita Falls - Tue., May 28, '19

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is monitoring the remainder of western north Texas for the potential of issuing an additional watch in the area.  Some documentation from the NWS SPC would indicate it would be a *SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH* while other data indicates it could be a *TORNADO WATCH* however all data agrees the chance of the watch being issued is 80%.

Here's a map of the are being considered:

Here's the 'official' statement from the NWS SPC:

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...portions of southern OK into north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 282023Z - 282130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in
   the next 1-2 hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
   main threat with any storms that develop and a watch will likely be
   needed by 21z.

   DISCUSSION...A CU field continues to become better defined across
   portions of southwest OK into northwest TX ahead of the surface
   dryline. 19z RAOB from OUN showed some weak midlevel capping, but
   modified for surface observations near SPS suggest little inhibition
   remains. A few attempts at CI have been noted over the last hour or
   so from SPS to ADM and isolated convection could develop within the
   next 1-2 hours as low level ascent increases with the dryline
   continuing to surge eastward. Large-scale ascent is expected to be
   somewhat weaker this far south and this should limit storm coverage.
   However, effective shear greater than 45 kt and very steep midlevel
   lapse rates will favor supercells capable of large hail. VWP from
   the FDR 88-d indicates unfavorable low level shear with very small
   hodographs and less than 50 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, the tornado
   threat should be minimized compared to areas further north where low
   level shear (both speed and directional) is stronger. A severe
   thunderstorm watch will likely be needed within the hour.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/28/2019

Stay tuned here for the latest updates, possible watches and warnings.

Meteorologist Bryan Rupp