Friday, May 24, 2019

Risk of Severe Weather Today Including Wichita Falls; Other Days As Well

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued their Severe Weather Threat Risk outlooks for the next eight days and there's a risk of severe weather in the area 5 of the 8 days.

Let's dive right in for today, Friday, May 24, 2019.  Here's the map for today:





Let's break down the risk areas:

SLIGHT RISK (2) for the following locations:  Wichita (including Wichita Falls), Clay, Archer, Wilbarger, Baylor, Throckmorton, Hardeman, Foard, Knox, Haskell, Stonewall, King, Cottle, Childress, Harmon, Greer, Kiowa, Jackson, Tillman, Comanche (including Lawton), Cotton, Stephens and Jefferson.

MARGINAL RISK (1) for the following locations:  Young (including Graham), Jack and Montague (including Bowier).

People across Texoma should be prepared for severe weather including large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and the potential for very isolated tornadoes.

A watch is likely at some point today, most likely being a *Severe Thunderstorm Watch*.



For Day two, Saturday, May 25, 2019.  Here's the map:



The threat area will be greatly reduced from Friday into Saturday.

Let's break down the risk areas:

SLIGHT RISK (2):  Greer, Harmon, Childress (including Childress) and Cottle Counties.

MARGINAL RISK (1):  Kiowa, Jackson (including Altus), Hardeman (including Quanah), Foard (including Crowell) and King Counties.

For Day three, Sunday, May 26, 2019.  Here's the map:




A majority of the severe weather chances will be in Western Texoma, Rolling Plains and Southwest Oklahoma.

We should get a break on Memorial Day 2019.

Then we turn our attention to the extended severe weather threat risk outlook; it just seems we can't shake the Tuesday curse of severe weather this season.

Here's the map for Tuesday, day five:




At this point, long term severe weather forecasters are noticing an area of strong instability and strong shear over the area on Tuesday and they have advised the further updates, most likely tomorrow will allow for a risk area upgrade to Enhanced for our area.  All severe weather modes including tornadoes will be possible.  This will need to be monitored.

Well there you have it.  The Severe Weather Threat Risk outlooks for the next few days.  Stay weather aware and stay tuned for further updates.

Meteorologist Bryan Rupp