Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Severe Threat UPGRADE to "Enhanced Risk" for Portions of the Area Today/Tomorrow - Tue., May 28, '19

Hello everyone!  The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded a portion of the area from SLIGHT RISK (2) to ENHANCED RISK (3).  Although a majority of the area remains in the SLIGHT RISK (2) this localized upgrade shows that the atmosphere is intensifying and could produce problems going into this afternoon, tonight, overnight and tomorrow.

Here are the details for today, tonight and overnight:





Here's how it breaks down...

MARGINAL RISK (1):  Jack (including Jacksboro), Haskell (including Haskell), Stonewall (including Aspermont), King (including Guthrie and 6666 Ranch), Cottle (including Paducah), Childress (including the city of Childress) and Harmon Counties (including Holliss).

SLIGHT RISK (2):  Wichita (including Wichita Falls), Archer (including Archer City), Young (including Graham), Clay (including Henrietta), Montague (including Bowie and Nocona), Jefferson (including Waurika), Cotton (including Walters), Tillman (including Frederick), Jackson (including Altus and AAFB), Greer, Kiowa (including Hobart), Wilbarger (including Vernon), Baylor (including Seymour), Hardeman (including Quanah), Foard (including Crowell), Know (including Munday) and Throckmorton (including the town of Throckmorton).

ENHANCED RISK (3):  Comanche (including Lawton and Fort Sill) and Stephens (including Duncan).

Folks in these areas should be prepared for watches and warnings during the late afternoon and evening.  As all severe weather modes will be possible including tornadoes, hail and damaging thunderstorm winds.

In addition here's the SIGNIFICANT severe weather risk for the area:





The significant severe appears to be confined to Comanche and Stephens Counties in the for of very large damaging hail of 2 inches or greater in diameter.

As we move into tomorrow, Wednesday the severe weather threat risk will continue, here's the map of the counties in our area:





MARGINAL RISK (1):  Childress, Cottle, Harmon, Jackson, Greer and Kiowa Counties.

SLIGHT RISK (2):  Wichita (including Wichita Falls), Archer, Clay, Wilbarger, Baylor, Hardeman, Foard, Knox, King, Stonewall, Haskell, Throckmorton, Young, Jack Tillman Comanche, Cotton, Stephens and Jefferson Counties.

ENHANCED RISK (3):  Montague County.

The severe weather threat consists of all modes including; tornadoes, hail and damaging wind.

The significant severe weather risk will also be present tomorrow, here's the county map:





It includes a considerable part of Texoma and the whole of the eastern parts of the area.  The primary significant risk will be damaging very large hail 2 inches in diameter or greater in addition to hurricane force straight line winds from severe thunderstorms.

Stay tuned right here for possible updates, upgrades or downgrades to risk, watches and warnings.

Meteorologist Bryan Rupp