Saturday, June 1, 2019

NWS Saying A Weather Watch Unlikely But Warnings Are Coming; Be Prepared

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has identified a majority of our area as having only a 40% chance of a weather watch in the next few hours.

   Mesoscale Discussion 0923
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2019

   Areas affected...Far Southwest OK...Far Northwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011853Z - 012030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts possible over the
   next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis indicates the air mass downstream
   of the outflow boundary surging southward across western OK is
   characterized by 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and no convective inhibition.
   Cool air behind this outflow boundary will likely limit storm
   longevity but interaction with the boundary could briefing augment
   updrafts with any ongoing activity. Visible satellite imagery shows
   increasing deep convection just southwest of SPS. Anticipated
   interaction between these storms and the ongoing outflow boundary
   may result in stronger updrafts than would typically be expected
   within the weakly sheared environment. Isolated hail and/or damaging
   wind gusts are the primary threat.

   There is some potential for the development of a more linear system
   along this outflow, with a result threat downstream for damaging
   wind gusts. However, given the lack of stronger large-scale forcing
   for ascent and dependence on mesoscale factors, the overall
   convective evolution is uncertain.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/01/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


However, showers and thunderstorms have popped up they are strong and could go severe.

*Severe Thunderstorm Warnings* are possible for the remainder of the afternoon; with the threat of large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

Even though a weather watch is not in effect be prepared to act if a warning comes down.

Meteorologist Bryan Rupp