Monday, June 17, 2019

Tornado Risk Increasing Tuesday With Overall Area In Severe Weather Risk; Stay Weather Aware

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has released their outlook for potential severe weather tomorrow, Tuesday, June 18, 2019.




Here's the map of risk for the area on Tuesday:



At this time all of the area is in the SLIGHT RISK (2), however this is an upgrade from yesterday.  And the NWS SPC indicates that the risk is increasing with each run of the computer models.  In addition significant severe weather is possible in some areas.  Take a look at this next map, it shows the counties in the significant severe risk:





[Im hoping to continue my forecasting and severe weather safety sharing all the way into 2020, but I need your help.  If you could donate a dollar or two it would be a great help.  I appreciate it.  Thank you so much, Bryan.]

Significant severe weather consists of the following:
  • Tornadoes
  • Very Large Hail (2"+)
  • Damaging Wind Gusts (up to 80mph)
In addition the SPC was specific to mention our area with a chance of tornadoes:


"Isolated tornadoes may also occur across
   parts of northwest TX and southwestern OK early Tuesday evening if
   storms can remain relatively discrete as a low-level jet gradually
   strengthens across this region."

It's important to pay special attention to this forecast as we get closer to tomorrow.  Tornadoes are not a common risk for this area in June but it can happen and this year is turning out to be an unusually active year even into the summer.

It also seems to be a month where the models change quickly all the way up to the event.  We have seen other accounts this month of the risk jumping rapidly, so I would pay attention to this.

Don't let any tell you this is a 'sugar-coated' forecast and just forget about it as so many of  the locals do.  Remain vigilant and weather aware, that's the best thing you can do in this area.

Have a great day!  There'll be an update about 1230p today and I'll post it as soon as I can.

Meteorologist Bryan W. Rupp